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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans improving together. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still