A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
