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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd